Part I: Your future demands attention

WASHINGTON — The latest USDA Milk Production Report released last Friday, Feb. 20 shows Pennsylvania was one of only four major milk-producing states posting losses in January 2026 as milk output fell 3% year-on-year (YoY) and cow numbers plunged 11,000 head to 454,000.

Nationally, January 2026 milk production rose 3.2%, with 189,000 more cows YoY.

Year-end 2025 data paint an even starker picture. While national milk output reached a record level, Pennsylvania shed dairy farms at an unmatched pace, accounting for 41% of all U.S. dairy exits last year.

USDA reported the nationwide average number of licensed dairies in 2025 was 23,609, down 1036 from what it reported last Friday for the year prior, 2024.

Pennsylvania alone lost 320 farms per that data, ending the year with 4360 dairy farms — the largest decline of any state.

Real numbers more concerning

However, here’s the problem. USDA changed the 2024 baseline with a revision that greatly complicates the data, quietly cutting 166 farms from Pennsylvania’s 2024 total — nearly the entire national downward revision of 170 farms — without flagging the 2024 change at the state or national level in the 2025 year-end report.

No comparable revisions were made for other major dairy states.

Using the originally published 2024 figures, the U.S. lost 1202 dairies in 2025, including 490, or 41%, in Pennsylvania alone.

That represents an unprecedented 11.7% loss of dairy farms in a single year for Pennsylvania, which is nearly triple the national rate of decline at 4.6%.

Average herd size nationally rose from 377 milk cows in 2024 to 402 in 2025, nearly four times Pennsylvania’s average, which increased from 96 to 106.

National production surges

Farm losses did not slow U.S. milk output. Production reached 232 billion pounds in 2025, up 2.6% YoY. The national herd averaged 9.5 million cows, up 153,000 from 2024, while output per cow rose to 24,390 pounds, up 218 pounds.

January 2026 reinforced the trend as national production was 19.2 billion pounds, up 3.2% YoY, with 9.58 million cows, up 189,000 head, alongside higher per-cow productivity.

The four-state benchmark

Pennsylvania remains No. 8 in milk production, but losses of dairy farms are not being offset by expansion on remaining farms, unlike other traditional states with a large base of dairy farmers.

Comparing Pennsylvania with Wisconsin, New York, and Minnesota, the only other states with more than 1500 dairy farms, removes the argument that Pennsylvania lost more farms because it started with more farms.

Together, these four states account for 61% of all U.S. dairies.

Pennsylvania ranked second in farm numbers at 4360 in 2025. Wisconsin led with 5375 dairies but lost only 145 farms while adding 4000 cows and increasing output 0.8% at 32.59 billion pounds in 2025. Average herd size there reached 237 cows.

January 2026 data show Wisconsin still expanding, with production up 2.1% and cow numbers up 20,000 head YoY.

New York posted one of the strongest gains, fueled by major processing investments. Despite losing 120 farms at 2760 in 2025, the Empire State added 12,000 cows and boosted production by 2.8% at 16.59 billion pounds.

Average herd size in New York climbed to 232 cows, more than double neighboring Pennsylvania’s average herd size of 106. Further gains continued into 2026 in New York, with January output up 3.4% YoY as cow numbers jumped 23,000 head.

Minnesota followed a similar path, losing 85 farms at 1605 in 2025 but adding 3000 cows and increasing production 2.1% at 10.62 billion pounds. Average herd size reached 279 cows, and January 2026 production elevated the trend, rising 3.4% YoY with 15,000 more cows.

Bigger herds dominate

The industry continues consolidating into larger operating regions and states within regions as average herd size is rising faster across the country than in Pennsylvania.

States and regions with average herd size above 500 cows produced about 75% of U.S. milk in 2025. In the fastest-growing regions, average herd size ranges from 880 cows in the Central U.S. to 1,688 in Mountain West states that are outside of federal orders, while West Coast and Southwest herds average 1050. The states with average herd size near or above 1000 cows now drive much of the national growth in milk production.

Not a cycle, a structural shift

The divergence is clear. Nationally in 2025: just over 4% fewer farms, but 1.6% more cows and 2.6% more milk. Whereas in Pennsylvania: nearly 12% fewer farms, along with 1% fewer cows and 0.5% less milk. January 2026 only deepened this divide with an 11,000-cow drop and 3% lower output YoY in the Keystone State.

Despite remaining a top-10 dairy state, Pennsylvania’s losses raise long-term questions for rural economies, regional food security, processing capacity, and family-scale dairies, which are the linchpin.

While national production and cow numbers continue to climb, Pennsylvania is not consolidating — it is shrinking.

Reversing this trajectory will require flexibility, innovation, and stronger consumer connection to dairy products produced in this state and region — including creative approaches to regional co-packing hubs and practical education and outreach efforts to expand fluid milk consumption, such as working with industry and regulators to ensure whole milk is actually available in schools.

Pennsylvania’s dairy future is at stake. Sustaining the state’s family-farm structure in a national industry increasingly dominated by large, standardized operations will demand strategies that prioritize local processing and market access.

In some fast-growth regions of the U.S. tied to expanding processing capacity, the milk production growth is being driven as much by manure-based renewable natural gas (RNG) projects, which contract for cows to generate feedstock, as by demand for milk itself.

 Part II will further examine the region-by-region data and trends.