Regional data reveal structural shifts between and within milksheds

Author’s Note: Part I of the 2025 year-end dairy data analysis, which was published in the  Feb. 27th edition of Farmshine, focused on Pennsylvania. Part II provides a region-by-region analysis of the USDA national report.

WASHINGTON, D.C. — The 2025 year-end milk production and dairy farm data show a U.S. dairy industry steadily reorganizing around regions with expanding processing capacity and larger herds. Production growth increasingly follows where plants are built and where farms can scale, driving consolidation both within regions and across the national dairy map.

The West Coast, Upper Midwest, and Northeast/Mid-Atlantic remained the nation’s three largest milksheds in 2025. But the fastest growth occurred elsewhere.

The Central region posted the largest gain in milk production and the second-largest increase in cows, while the Southwest added nearly as much milk. Both regions are now producing about 28 billion pounds annually, closing to within roughly 2.5 billion pounds of the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic.

The Unregulated Mountain region gained the most cows. Every region added cows except the West Coast and Southeast, and milk production increased in every region except the Southeast. Farm losses were heaviest in the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic, followed by the Upper Midwest.

Northeast/Mid-Atlantic: Farms down, milk up modestly

The Northeast/Mid-Atlantic milkshed, stretching from Maine through Maryland, recorded the nation’s largest farm losses, dropping 640 licensed dairies in 2025 compared with the original USDA 2024 baseline. Pennsylvania accounted for 75% of that decline.

Despite the exits, the region added 8000 cows and increased milk output by 441 million pounds (+1.5%) at 30.56 billion pounds, remaining the nation’s third-largest milkshed.

Growth was driven primarily by 5th-ranked New York, which added 12,000 cows and increased production by 458 million pounds (+2.8%) while losing 120 farms; dropping to 2760. More than $3 billion in announced processing investments continue to anchor expansion there.

Pennsylvania moved in the opposite direction, losing 4000 cows and 41 million pounds of milk (-0.5%) while remaining 8th nationally in output. Dairy farms totaled 4360, down 490 using USDA’s original 2024 count.

Vermont, ranked 18th nationally, maintained cow numbers and increased production 1.4% despite losing 20 dairies at 370, continuing the region’s consolidation into fewer, larger farms.

Several smaller New England states, along with New Jersey and Delaware, are now grouped into USDA’s “Other States” category, preventing individual tracking of their dairy trends.

Southeast: stable

The Southeast milkshed — primarily Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Virginia — lost 40 farms while milk production slipped 44 million pounds (-0.3%) to 12.53 billion. Cow numbers declined by 4000 head.

Production is increasingly concentrated in Georgia and Florida, which together supply more than half of the region’s milk. Georgia led the region in 2025, adding 3000 cows and increasing production 7.8% at 2.09 billion pounds despite losing five dairies. Florida followed closely at 2.07 billion pounds, up 1.9% even with 2000 fewer cows. Florida was also the only state nationally to gain dairy farms, adding five to reach 50.

Virginia’s production was essentially unchanged at 1.4 billion pounds (+0.1%) with 1000 fewer cows and 10 fewer farms.

Kentucky (-6% milk, -3000 cows), Tennessee (-9.6%, -2000 cows), and North Carolina (-4.6%, -3000 cows) continued to contract, each losing 10 dairies. Despite these declines, the region retains localized expansion potential due to forage resources, available water and proximity to large population centers.

Mid-East: steady expansion

Ohio, Michigan, and Indiana continued the Mid-East milkshed’s steady growth pattern in 2025. The region lost 45 farms but added 16,000 cows, increasing milk production by 546 million pounds (+2.3%) to 23.86 billion pounds.

Michigan, ranked 6th nationally, accounted for most of the gain with production up 3.4% and average herd size reaching 550 cows. Ohio and Indiana also expanded output, supported by modern facilities, strong feed supplies, and proximity to major processors.

Upper Midwest: consolidating growth

The Upper Midwest milkshed remains the second-largest milkshed comprised of two top-10 states, Wisconsin and Minnesota. Together, they produced 43.2 billion pounds in 2025, up 476 million (+1.1%), added 7000 cows but lost 230 farms.

Wisconsin, No. 2 nationally in milk production and No. 1 in farm numbers, added 4000 cows and produced 32.59 billion pounds. No. 7 Minnesota added 3000 cows and produced 10.62 billion pounds. Both states continue to expand through productivity gains and moderate herd growth supported by strong processing infrastructure.

Central: rapid-growth corridor

In the Central States, from Kansas north through South Dakota and west to Colorado, expansion is driven by very large dairies and new dairy and processing construction. The eight-state Central region increased production by 1.35 billion pounds (+5.1%) at 28.05 billion pounds despite losing 115 farms. Cow numbers rose 52,000 head, with average herd size approaching 880 cows.

Kansas posted the fastest growth (+17.2%), followed by South Dakota (+9.5%) and Colorado (+3.9%). Oklahoma is not a top-24 state, but production there increased 8%, while Iowa posted modest growth of 0.7%. Gains more than offset declines in Illinois, Missouri, and Nebraska.

Southwest: Texas grows for two

Texas and New Mexico together produced 28.06 billion pounds of milk in 2025, up 1.17 billion (+4.4%), while losing 25 farms. Average herd size exceeds 1000 cows per dairy.

Texas, ranked 4th nationally, drove all of the growth, adding 39,000 cows and increasing production 6.9% amid major dairy construction and processing expansion. New Mexico’s long decline appeared to stabilize, with production down just 1% and cow numbers down 3000.

Mountain region: expansion powerhouse

Idaho, Utah, and Nevada — states outside Federal Milk Marketing Orders — increased milk production by 1.24 billion pounds (+5.5%) to 23.89 billion pounds with no change in farm numbers.

Cow inventories gained 54,000 head, including 46,000 in Idaho alone, now the nation’s 3rd-largest milk-producing state. The region produces large volumes of milk from relatively few operations, averaging 1688 cows per farm.

Wyoming, a previously growing but smaller state, is now grouped into USDA’s “Other States” category as USDA shields individual farm data.

West Coast: largest but slowing

The West Coast, including Oregon, Washington, and No. 1 milk state California, remains the nation’s largest milkshed at 49.28 billion pounds but showed modest growth of 288 million pounds (+0.6%) while losing 35 farms and 11,000 cows.

California and Oregon recorded small gains, while Washington contracted sharply, losing 17,000 cows and 6.7% of its production. Environmental constraints, water availability, and economic pressures continue to shape dairy trends on the West Coast.

Arizona, a milkshed of its own, saw production increase 1.5% with 3000 more cows in 2025.