WASHINGTON, D.C. — In a May 17 fact sheet released following President Donald Trump’s summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping, the White House announced that China will purchase at least $17 billion annually in U.S. agricultural products through 2028, in addition to the soybean purchase commitments made in Oct. 2025.

The announced framework is viewed as a potentially major demand signal not only for crop growers, but for the high-demand protein complex that includes dairy, beef, poultry, and potentially pork.

That is, if these sales are fully realized.

It adds to the previously-negotiated Phase One soybean purchase commitments already estimated near $12 billion annually. Combined, total ag purchases could approach $29 billion annually, if both agreements are fully implemented 2026-28.

Market analyst Dan Basse of AgResource Company described the agreement as potentially one of the largest agricultural demand drivers since the 2020 Phase One agreement and the ethanol expansion era.

“We’re getting close,” Basse told Agritalk, comparing the framework to prior demand-led rallies that significantly boosted farm profitability. “If China is true to its word and Trump is right on his announcement, this should be another demand driver for the next couple of years.”

Unlike the earlier Phase One agreement, the details of this framework remain limited. Markets are looking for signs of follow-through, such as China formally reducing tariffs and beginning to make purchases.

Analysts are quick to point out that the agreement does not erase Brazil’s growing dominance in global soybean exports, describing the deal as a political reallocation of purchases more than a complete economic shift back to the U.S.  

For dairy, the significance of the deal lies in China being one of the world’s largest buyers of dairy proteins, whey products, lactose, and other milk powders.

Basse estimates the combined purchases in dairy and livestock categories could approach $3 billion annually, up from roughly $2.2 billion previously.

At the same time, domestic U.S. protein demand is already strong. In the dairy industry, consumer protein demand is driving major processing investment in high-protein whey powders, ultrafiltered milk, cottage cheese, milk protein concentrates, and other higher-protein dairy ingredients tied to sports nutrition. In the case of expanded whey protein powder production, growing quantities of residual cheese are being generated.

Additionally, nonfat dry milk is selling to domestic demand at record-smashing prices, as food, snack, and beverage applications for milk powders have kept dairy protein markets (but not cheese) selling at unusually high prices, even as milk production expands.

Any additional demand from China would layer onto an already firm domestic protein market rather than absorbing surplus milk powder production because at this point in time, there is no surplus milk powder production. Will China buy cheese?

On the beef side, which also impacts dairy farm revenue, the China framework offers a much different dynamic. Historically, much of China’s beef interest centered on variety meats and byproducts. These are items less valued in the U.S. market but highly utilized in Asian food systems.

According to the American Meat Institute, beef products exported to China find limited interest in the U.S. but are items Chinese customers pay higher prices for.

Beef packer profitability relies heavily on “drop credit,” which is the value recovered from hides, offal, and byproducts beyond mainline boxed beef. Stronger export demand in that area can improve packer margins to support current cattle prices while not competing directly with continued strong U.S. consumer beef demand and tight cattle supply.

Poultry exports could also see a big benefit from the deal if China further reopens trade following avian influenza restrictions, according to multiple analysts. This also includes poultry parts that find little demand in the U.S.

Meanwhile, as the trade watches what actually develops from the China agreement, there is growing discussion about China’s long-term food-security and protein strategy and the implications for U.S. agriculture beyond 2030.

A Reuter’s report May 18 looks at a protein pivot that China is actively pursuing, noting that, “over the past two decades, China has driven global agricultural growth, running an ag commodity import deficit of $124.5 billion in 2024… Brazil supplies more than 60% of soy and 40% of China’s beef, and the U.S. a further 30% of soy. For a generation, global agriculture has been organized around a simple model: every-growing demand from a single, dominant buyer,” noting further that the era is closing.

The article cites China’s latest five-year plan, published in March, that reinforces food security as taking precedence over other major challenges.

In addition, recent analysis from systems-change consultancy Systemiq examines the infrastructure investments China is making that it says could eventually reduce soybean import demand by roughly 25% by 2030 through feed-efficiency gains and alternative protein development. The scenario-based analysis is worth keeping an eye on for the U.S. and Brazil because both countries have become heavily dependent on Chinese soybean demand over the past two decades.

The Systemiq report evaluates China’s investment in genetically-altered fermentation-derived fake dairy protein analogs and cell-cultured fake meat biotechnologies that it projects could become a much larger part of China’s food system over time. Under the report’s longer-term scenarios, alternative proteins could account for 35% to 55% of China’s domestic protein consumption by 2050, dependent on the acceptance and production scale China is actively pursuing.

Comparing these investments to China’s earlier industrial expansion into solar panels and electric vehicles — as well as the soybean and pea-protein concentrate infrastructure already built for pet foods and plant-based products — the report notes that China moved from limited production to dominant global market share in these areas within 15 years.

While Systemiq’s projections are aggressive and scenario-dependent, this strategic direction is reflected in other mainstream ag and food policy analyses. Rabobank and other global forecasters continually note China’s push toward greater protein self-sufficiency.

Long-range outlooks from the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) forecast slower growth in Chinese feed-import demand compared with rapid expansion in prior decades, while investment groups identify China as a key future market and manufacturer for alt-protein biotechnology.

For American farmers across crop, dairy, and livestock sectors, the current China deal could be a boon for the next three years, though the proof will be in what happens next. There are also domestic demand considerations for the future.

Meanwhile, the longer-term China picture remains complicated as it invests aggressively in a future food-security and protein strategy while remaining heavily dependent, today, on imported soybeans, feed grains, dairy ingredients and animal proteins.

While China pursues synthetic protein technologies as part of its long-term strategy, U.S. agriculture continues to benefit from strengthened consumer demand for real dairy and animal proteins produced by American farmers and ranchers.