EAST EARL, Pa. – The July jump in cow numbers, up 159,000 head year-on-year (YoY), and milk production, up 3.4%, caught the market off guard when USDA reported the figures on Aug. 21. This surge seemed unlikely, given two years of Cattle Inventory reports showing dwindling numbers of breeding-age heifers and “expected to calve” replacements at their lowest levels in nearly 50 years.

To ground these contrasting numbers, I conducted an independent, informal Dairy Herd Survey promoted through Farmshine and social media. More than 1,000 dairy farmers responded from coast-to-coast, representing herds from fewer than 50 cows to more than 5000. About 38% of responses came from the Northeast Federal Order, 34% from the Upper Midwest, and 11% from the Mideast, with the rest scattered across the Southeast, Florida, Appalachian, Central, Southwest, and California Orders, as well as unregulated western states.

Herd sizes varied, which made for some healthy analysis: 34% of respondents milk fewer than 100 cows; 29% are 100 to 300 cows; 13% over 2000 cows, including several topping 5000 head; 8% each in the 300 to 500 and 500 to 1000 cow ranges; and 7% milk 1000 to 2000 cows.

On production, 52% reported rolling herd averages steady YoY, 34% higher, and 14% lower. These ground-level numbers give context to USDA’s reports of sharp increases in national milk production this summer.

With consistency across herd sizes, the headline finding is 73% of respondents are doing the same or more beef-on-dairy breeding this year, while only 20% are breeding for more dairy replacements. A small 7% group sits in the middle, not using BxD but also not expanding heifer production.

Beef x Dairy

Beef-on-dairy (BxD) breeding is transforming the cattle sector. CattleFax estimates there were 2.92 million BxD calves in 2023 and 3.22 million in 2024, up from just 50,000 in 2014. Kansas State’s Ken Odde notes that if the projected 5 to 6 million BxD calves are realized by 2026, it will account for 15% of the fed cattle market.

My survey mirrored this trend. Across herd sizes, 26% of responding dairies said they are doing more BxD this year, 47% the same, and 27% less or none, including within this group about 7% who have not adopted BxD at all. Of those breeding BxD, 94% sell calves soon after birth, almost half through auctions and over a third to direct buyers. Smaller shares raise calves longer, finish them out, or sell beef directly to consumers.

For most dairies, the attraction is clear: little added investment or space is needed to collect $1000 to $1200 for a three-day-old calf. Others are taking a different path, developing long-term direct-marketing relationships with consumers.

Replacement heifers

With both BxD and sexed semen now integrated on most dairies, replacement dynamics are shifting. A decision to raise more heifers does not necessarily mean BxD breeding will decline; many farms simply deploy more sexed semen to get what they need.

Among survey respondents, 62% said they have enough replacements, 15% are raising fewer without concern, 12% are breeding for more of their own replacements, and 7% are breeding extra dairy heifers to sell. While 26% reported more BxD and only 20% reported more dairy replacement heifers, the cross-section of herds in these categories suggests a 2% bump in heifer calves in 2025–26, potentially entering milking herds in 2027–28. This conservatively echoes CoBank’s forecast of shrinking inventories in the short term before a rebound later in the decade.

 As replacement heifers become more valuable with springers averaging $3000 to $4000, it remains to be seen if further shifts will materialize into 2026.

Culling strategies

When asked if high beef prices affect culling, half of the farmers said they had made no changes. About 22% reported quicker culling at strong prices, while 27% said they are keeping questionable cows longer. In addition, roughly one in five reported keeping hard breeders longer than in the past and using beef semen on these animals.

Producer comments reflected a wide range of approaches: some prioritize longevity and steady cow numbers, while others cull short-breds quickly but keep long-breds that are low-producers but in sound health. Several described their dairies as “throughput” operations, breeding nearly everything to beef and buying-in replacements. Drought and feed concerns factored into others’ decisions.

Aging herds

USDA data confirm an aging beef herd, and to a lesser extent for dairy, as replacement numbers shrink and culling continues to decline over the past 18 to 24 months. My dairy survey supports this as 60% of respondents said average lactation age is steady, 22% older, and 13% younger.

National picture

While the survey sheds light on farm-level strategies, USDA data show the national herd stood at 9.49 million cows in July, up 10,000 from June and 159,000 above a year earlier. Average output per cow rose 34 pounds, or just over a pound a day. In absolute terms these increases equate to more than 650 million additional pounds of milk in July 2025 compared with July 2024. Higher component levels compound the production increase.

Texas and Idaho led the growth, together accounting for more than half of the national herd increase. Texas produced 8.4% more milk with 39,000 additional cows, while Idaho surged 8.7% with 48,000 more cows. Kansas, South Dakota, Michigan, and Colorado also posted big gains, adding a collective 70,000 cows. California rose 3.8% with 3000 more cows, while in the Upper Midwest, Wisconsin eked out a 1% gain despite losing 3000 head, and Minnesota grew 1.9% with 2000 more cows.

In contrast, the Pacific Northwest with the lowest mailbox milk prices in the nation over the past few months account for 23,000 fewer cows in Washington, with production down 9.2%. Oregon added 1000 cows and grew 0.5%. These were the only two top-24 states to see output per cow slip below year-ago levels.

In the Northeast, New York added 9000 cows and grew 3.1%. Vermont rose 3.4% with no herd change. Pennsylvania lost 5000 cows but still gained 0.4% in milk. Maryland stood out in the June quarterly data with 1000 more cows and a 5.5% production jump.

In the Southeast, Georgia grew 9.6% with 3000 more cows and the nation’s largest gain in output per cow. Florida rose 3.6% despite losing 1000 cows, thanks to a 2.5-pound per cow daily increase. June quarterly data showed other southeastern states lost a collective 10,000 cows.

Cull rates and comparisons

The strength of recent production and cow number gains may seem improbable against USDA’s Cattle Inventory reports. But several factors explain it — longer cow productive life, higher yields, and reduced culling.

Dairy cow slaughter for the first seven months of 2025 totaled 1.5 million head, 7% below last year and just 15.8% of the national herd size. That is the smallest Jan–July cull rate since 2008, when 1.468 million cows were culled from a 9.315 million herd — also 15.8%. The similarity is striking, bookending the expansion of sexed semen in 2008 and the rise of beef-on-dairy in 2022 as structural shifts in herd stability.

Beef cow slaughter, meanwhile, was down 18% year-to-date through July. This pushed cull prices higher and brought more dairy cows to market in June and July. Beef producers appear to be holding cows longer to sustain calf crops rather than rebuilding with retained heifers vs. the prices feedlots are willing to pay to put them into the beef channels.

The big picture

Taken together, my independent survey and the USDA reports tell the same story from different angles. On farms, producers are weaving beef-on-dairy, sexed semen, repro and health monitoring technologies, and longevity genetics into more flexible business models. These decisions are reshaping herd dynamics, milk flows, and market signals.

Along with the on-farm trend toward increasing milk component yield, these integrated herd breeding and management strategies are diversifying revenue, cushioning margins, and strengthening balance sheets with something dairy farmers can take to the bank— when milk prices hit the skids.

Thank you to all of the Farmshine readers who responded to my independent Dairy Herd Survey.